Published Papers

1. "Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-induced Revaluation of Urban Real Estate" Journal of Financial Economics 2021
Arpit Gupta, Jonas Peeters and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Links: NBER WP #w28675; SSRN.

Featured in: Covid Economics (Issue 69, Lead Article); The New York Times; The Economist; VoxEU; Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate Research, Columbia Business School.

Presented at^: AFA 2022, NBER Summer Institute 2021, Triangle Macro-Finance Workshop 2021; NYU Stern Seminar; Columbia Business School Seminar -- Finance Internal and Ph.D.; AREUEA 2021; PERC 2021; SFA 2021; IRC 2021; Wisconsin Madison.

Abstract: We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases away from the center, thereby flattening the bid-rent curve in most U.S. metropolitan areas. Across MSAs, the flattening of the bid-rent curve is larger when working from home is more prevalent, housing markets are more regulated, and supply is less elastic. Housing markets predict that urban rent growth will exceed suburban rent growth for the foreseeable future.

Working Papers

2. "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse"
Arpit Gupta and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Links: SSRN.

Presented at^: AEA 2023, AREUEA National Conference 2022, AREUEA Dublin Conference 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Abstract: We study the impact of remote work on the commercial office sector. We document large shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents as firms shifted to remote work in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the pandemic has had large effects on both current and expected future cash flows for office buildings. Remote work also changes the risk premium on office real estate. We revalue the stock of New York City commercial office buildings taking into account pandemic-induced cash flow and discount rate effects. We find a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and 28% in the longer-run, the latter representing a $500 billion value destruction. Higher quality office buildings were somewhat buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower quality office buildings see much more dramatic swings. These valuation changes have repercussions for local public finances and financial sector stability.

3. "The Effect of Stock Ownership on Individual Spending and Loyalty" (NBER WP #w28479)
Paolina Medina and Michaela Pagel

Links: NBER WP #w28479; SSRN.

Featured in: Market Watch; Columbia Business School Press; Texas A&M Mays Business School Press; Retail Bum.

Presented at^: AFA 2022, CEPR Workshop on New Consumption Data; Columbia PhD Lunch Seminar; Columbia Finance Lunch seminar; Columbia Pre Thesis Seminar; Barnard Women's Applied Micro Seminar; Georgetown Fintech Apps Seminar; McIntire University of Virginia; University of Maryland; University of Amsterdam; SAIF; ANU; Cesifo Conference; University of Vienna; University of Regensburg; University of Southern California; WFA 2021.

Abstract: In this study, we quantify the effects of receiving stocks from certain brands on spending in the brand's stores. We use data from a new FinTech company called Bumped that opens brokerage accounts for its users and rewards them with stocks when they shop at previously elected stores. For identification, we use 1) the staggered distribution of brokerage accounts over time after individuals sign up for a waitlist and 2) randomly distributed stock grants. We find that individuals spend 40% more per week at elected brands and stores after being allocated an account. In response to receiving a stock grant, individuals increase their weekly spending by 100% on the granted brands. Beyond documenting a causal link between stock ownership and individual spending, we show that weekly spending in certain brands of our users is strongly correlated with stock holdings of that brand by Robinhood brokerage clients. Finally, we present survey evidence to argue that loyalty is the dominant psychological mechanism explaining our findings.

Work in Progress

4. "Pension Funds Deluge: Firms and Rise of Private Markets" [Job Market Paper]

Awards: PhD Lang Fellowship, Columbia Chazen Grant, Bernstein Fellowship
Presented at: Columbia Business School, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

5. "Effects of Private Equity on Income Inequality"

Abstract: Using a novel compiled dataset of U.S. private equity target firms matched to the employer-employee Census Bureau micro-data, I study the effects of private equity buyouts on income inequality within the firm. Compared to control firms constructed via matched sample based on granular firm characteristics, I find significant and persistent increases of within firm wage dispersion post buyout.
* Results have only undergone qualitative disclosure, numbers cannot be mentioned.

6. "Role of Non-bank Lending"

Presented at: Columbia Business School

7. "Market Power and Income Inequality"
Xavier Giroud

^Includes presentations by coauthors and self.