Job Market Paper
1. "Desperate Capital Breeds Productivity Loss: Evidence from Public Pension Investments in Private Equity"
Awards: PhD Lang Fellowship • Columbia Chazen Grant • Bernstein Fellowship
Featured in: Regulatory Compliance Watch
Presented at: CAFRAL (scheduled) • Columbia Business School • Columbia Economics Department • Columbia PE Conference (scheduled) • Federal Reserve Board • Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Abstract: I study the effects of private equity (PE) buyouts on labor productivity using a novel micro-data on investments in PE funds and PE buyout deals, combined with confidential Census data. I show that while PE increased productivity at target firms until 2011, it substantially decreased productivity post 2011. In the time series, the decrease in labor productivity is correlated with an increase in capital from the most underfunded public pensions. In the cross-section, I show that firms financed predominantly by the most underfunded public pensions experience a -5.2% annual change in labor productivity, as compared to firms financed by other investors which experience a +5.2% annual change. Firms supported by low quality PE funds face productivity decreases. The key mechanism is the notion of desperate capital, where the most underfunded public pensions allocate capital to low quality GPs, and realize lower PE returns. I introduce a novel instrument of public unionization rates to establish support for underfunded positions causing selection into low quality GPs, which ultimately leads to capital misallocation within private markets.
2. "Flattening the Curve: Pandemic-induced Revaluation of Urban Real Estate" Journal of Financial Economics, Nov 2022, 146 (2), 594-636
November 2022 Editor's Choice Article
Co-authors: Arpit Gupta, Jonas Peeters, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Links: NBER WP #w28675 • SSRN
Featured in: Covid Economics (Issue 69, Lead Article) • The New York Times • The Economist • VoxEU • Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate Research, Columbia Business School
Presented at*: AFA 2022 • NBER Summer Institute 2021 • Triangle Macro-Finance Workshop 2021 • NYU Stern Seminar • Columbia Business School -- Finance Internal and Ph.D. • AREUEA 2021 • PERC 2021 • SFA 2021 • IRC 2021 • Wisconsin Madison
Abstract: We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases away from the center, thereby flattening the bid-rent curve in most U.S. metropolitan areas. Across MSAs, the flattening of the bid-rent curve is larger when working from home is more prevalent, housing markets are more regulated, and supply is less elastic. Housing markets predict that urban rent growth will exceed suburban rent growth for the foreseeable future.
3. "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse" (NBER WP #w30526)
Co-authors: Arpit Gupta and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
Links: NBER WP #w30526 • SSRN
Featured in: Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center Webcast • Freakonomics Podcast: The Unintended Consequences of Working from Home • Bloomberg • Bloomberg x2 • Bloomberg News • Financial Times • Financial Times x2 • Yahoo Finance • The New York Times: July 06, 2022 • The New York Times x2 • The New York Times x3 • Volcker Alliance • Fortune • GlobeSt • GlobeSt x2 • Vox.com • The Register • Phil Stock World • Axios.com • City Journal • Recode by Vox • Social Science Encyclopedia Video • Columbia Business School Press • The Real Deal • Amny • NYU Stern Press • Construction Dive • American City and County • BisNow • MSN • MarketProof • AIS Health • Seattle Times • Commercial Observer • All Work
Presented at*: ASSA 2023 • The American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) National Conference 2022 • AREUEA International Conference 2022 • PUC Chile 2022 • Boston Federal Reserve 2022 • NYU Stern 2022 • New York Federal Reserve 2022 • Stanford Remote Work Conference 2022 • Michigan Ross School of Business 2022 • Columbia Business School 2022 • Toronto Real Estate Conference 2022 • National University of Singapore 2022 • Urban Economics Association 2022 • HKUST 2022 • USC Macro-Finance 2022
Abstract: We study the impact of remote work on the commercial office sector. We document large shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents as firms shifted to remote work in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the pandemic has had large effects on both current and expected future cash flows for office buildings. Remote work also changes the risk premium on office real estate. We revalue the stock of New York City commercial office buildings taking into account pandemic-induced cash flow and discount rate effects. We find a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and 28% in the longer-run, the latter representing a $500 billion value destruction. Higher quality office buildings were somewhat buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower quality office buildings see much more dramatic swings. These valuation changes have repercussions for local public finances and financial sector stability.
4. "The Effect of Stock Ownership on Individual Spending and Loyalty" (NBER WP #w28479)
Co-authors: Paolina Medina and Michaela Pagel
Links: NBER WP #w28479 • SSRN
Featured in: Market Watch • Columbia Business School Press • Texas A&M Mays Business School Press • Retail Bum
Presented at*: AFA 2022 • Barnard Women's Applied Micro Seminar • Boston College • CEPR Workshop on New Consumption Data • Columbia PhD Lunch Seminar • Columbia Finance Lunch seminar • Columbia Pre Thesis Seminar • European Finance Association 2022 • Georgetown Fintech Apps Seminar • Inter-Finance Ph.D. Seminar • McIntire University of Virginia • SC Johnson College of Business, Cornell University • The Center for Financial Planning 2021 Academic Research Colloquium for Financial Planning and Related Disciplines • University of Maryland • University of Amsterdam • NBER SI 2021 – Household Finance • SAIF • ANU • Cesifo Conference • University of Vienna • University of Regensburg • University of Southern California • WFA 2021
Abstract: In this study, we quantify the effects of receiving stocks from certain brands on spending in the brand's stores. We use data from a new FinTech company called Bumped that opens brokerage accounts for its users and rewards them with stocks when they shop at previously elected stores. For identification, we use 1) the staggered distribution of brokerage accounts over time after individuals sign up for a waitlist and 2) randomly distributed stock grants. We find that individuals spend 40% more per week at elected brands and stores after being allocated an account. In response to receiving a stock grant, individuals increase their weekly spending by 100% on the granted brands. Beyond documenting a causal link between stock ownership and individual spending, we show that weekly spending in certain brands of our users is strongly correlated with stock holdings of that brand by Robinhood brokerage clients. Finally, we present survey evidence to argue that loyalty is the dominant psychological mechanism explaining our findings.
Work in Progress
5. "Effects of Private Equity on Income Inequality"
Abstract: Using a novel compiled dataset of U.S. private equity target firms matched to the employer-employee Census Bureau micro-data, I study the effects of private equity buyouts on income inequality within the firm. Compared to control firms constructed via matched sample based on granular firm characteristics, I find 8.1% significant and persistent increases in within firm variance in wages post buyout at targets.
6. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Private Capital Markets"
7. "Market Power and Income Inequality"
Co-authors: Xavier Giroud
*includes presentations by co-authors